http://www.alanfurth.com/mathematical-arrogance-and-geopolitics/ Mon, 25 Apr 2011 20:05:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 http://www.alanfurth.com/mathematical-arrogance-and-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-9 alanfurth.com » Blog Archive » Should economists learn to crochet? Mon, 20 Apr 2009 18:04:40 +0000 http://alanfurth.com/?p=95#comment-9 [...] a previous post I discussed how Bueno de Mesquita’s approach almost perfectly mirrored the stance of most [...] [...] a previous post I discussed how Bueno de Mesquita’s approach almost perfectly mirrored the stance of most [...]

]]> http://www.alanfurth.com/mathematical-arrogance-and-geopolitics/comment-page-1/#comment-8 Darin Swan Mon, 20 Apr 2009 02:43:28 +0000 http://alanfurth.com/?p=95#comment-8 I saw your post at TED, along with others, and viewed the video as well. I cam across Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on a recent viewing of the History Channel's program "The Next Nostradamus". Whether you believe his claim of 90% accuracy or not, his information is compelling. I've worked for the last year and a half on my Masters in a similar field as Bueno de Mesquita, but am nowhere near the expert that he is in his unique field. I can appreciate his predictive model based on game theory and do believe that different models are better for different applications. His model, specifically, is meant to work in a very specific area and not in something like the financial market. Partially due to the lack of information or the volume of influencers, but more likely because social interaction can more likely than not be broken down into a much more simple process. All of the above being said, I also wrote a paper on the future of the nuclear weapons program in Iran (assuming rational actors) and filtering the data through the LAMP Model created by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood (lamp-method.org). Of course, my paper was much more detailed, but it predicted a similar outcome based on the various influences and goals of each actor. The LAMP model is known, it is not proprietary, and does not rely heavily (that heavily) on mathematics - seemingly unlike Bueno de Mesquita. One think I've learned through my journey in analytical predictive methods is that once you determine the most likely possible outcome, that outcome can be influenced through influence (in a variety of ways, of course). The future is much like what is showcased in Nicholas Cage's film "Next" (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_(film)); both an excellent film and an example of how predicted happenings can constantly be changed. :-D I saw your post at TED, along with others, and viewed the video as well. I cam across Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on a recent viewing of the History Channel’s program “The Next Nostradamus”. Whether you believe his claim of 90% accuracy or not, his information is compelling. I’ve worked for the last year and a half on my Masters in a similar field as Bueno de Mesquita, but am nowhere near the expert that he is in his unique field. I can appreciate his predictive model based on game theory and do believe that different models are better for different applications. His model, specifically, is meant to work in a very specific area and not in something like the financial market. Partially due to the lack of information or the volume of influencers, but more likely because social interaction can more likely than not be broken down into a much more simple process. All of the above being said, I also wrote a paper on the future of the nuclear weapons program in Iran (assuming rational actors) and filtering the data through the LAMP Model created by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood (lamp-method.org). Of course, my paper was much more detailed, but it predicted a similar outcome based on the various influences and goals of each actor. The LAMP model is known, it is not proprietary, and does not rely heavily (that heavily) on mathematics – seemingly unlike Bueno de Mesquita. One think I’ve learned through my journey in analytical predictive methods is that once you determine the most likely possible outcome, that outcome can be influenced through influence (in a variety of ways, of course). The future is much like what is showcased in Nicholas Cage’s film “Next” (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_(film)); both an excellent film and an example of how predicted happenings can constantly be changed.

]]>